Thursday, November 03, 2011

Looks like we may be here for a while


From: "Commanders' Weather" 
Date: November 3, 2011 8:32:44 AM ADT
To: Jim Gregory
Subject: Weather Outlook 11/3/11

To:            Jim Gregory and crew of S/Y "Morpheus"
From:            Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789
Route:            Bermuda to St. Maarten
Departure:        ???
Prepared:        0730edt Thu, November 3, 2011

Summary …

1) The current weather map shows high pressure across the southeast
U.S. running NE and up toward the south coast of Nova Scotia.
2) A potent area of low pressure is centered across the western
Midwest tracking E.
3) A strong cold front is coming SE across SE Canada linking up to the
low in the Midwest.
4) And an area of low pressure is centered NE of Bermuda near 37
40n/58 30w moving ENE.
5) The Bermuda area is in a N flow this morning with speeds in the
teens due to the low to the NE.
   a) The low will be moving away today with winds clocking to NE and
lightening through the day
       around Bermuda.
   b) Also the high along the U.S. east coast will build off to the
eastward closer to Bermuda.
6) The high pressure ridge will continue to build east into Fri and
will be in the Bermuda area early Fri.
7) Meanwhile the potent low will track eastward to the Carolinas by
early Fri and will be linking up with the strong cold front which will
be coming SE through New England.
8) Large and strong high pressure will be building across eastern
Canada and the Great Lakes region of the U.S. by later Fri.
   a) This will bring a very strong surge of N to NE winds up and
down much of the U.S. east coast on
        the back side of the front and low due to the strong high
building behind it.
9) Meanwhile around Bermuda winds will become S to SW on Fri but
speeds will be fairly light overall.
10) The low and front will continue linked up and will be shifting
slowly SE and S off the east coast of the U.S. across the NW Atlantic
into Sat and the large high will become centered over New England.
  a) At some point on Sat this front cold front will be passing
through the Bermuda area with an abrupt
      shift in winds into the NE.
  b) Wind speeds could be as high as 30-40 knots out of the NE behind
this front around Bermuda!
11) The large high will then stretch out west-east across to the north
of Bermuda up around 40n into Sun and Mon while the low may stall out
to the NE of the Bahamas and SW of Bermuda.
   a) This will have rough weather continuing around Bermuda with
near gale force or gale force NE to E
        winds around Bermuda.
12) The low may retrograde westward between Bermuda and the Bahamas
early to mid next week and this may lead to winds veering into the SE
to S to the S of Bermuda along your route.
   a) These winds would not be as nearly as strong, but the direction
is not good for your route.
13) So if you do not leave Bermuda today or Fri you may be stuck for
another week or more before the weather pattern becomes favorable
again.
   a) Leaving today or Fri will not be the best of weather windows,
but you would be able to stay ahead of
       the strong cold front, but you will not have your typical
trade wind regime with SE, S or SW winds
       much of the way.
   b) These SE-S-SW winds will not be strong, so just a lot of
motoring conditions and a few tacks likely
       if you leave today or Fri.
14) Seas will have a long period N swell around Bermuda today and Fri
running around 8-12 feet, then over the weekend seas will build to
15-20 feet around Bermuda and may remain in that range into early next
week.
15) So please let us know if you will try to get out before the cold
front today or Fri and if so we can prepare a more detailed forecast
for you, or if you will wait for a better window.

Best regards,
Oliver Lucia


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